Global air cargo volumes rose seven cent year on year in January, but weakening e-commerce demand from China and Hong Kong threatens the outlook, reports London’s Air Cargo News.
Analyst Xeneta said the increase was driven by an early Lunar New Year, with global chargeable weight posting its strongest growth since January 2025. Capacity supply rose five per cent, pushing the dynamic load factor up one point to 57 per cent. Spot rates averaged US$2.56 per kg, down one per cent year on year.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief air freight officer, cautioned that Chinese New Year distortions make January data unreliable. He said e-commerce exports from China and Hong Kong fell nine per cent in December, the first decline since January 2022, signalling a trend that could affect growth plans reliant on high e-commerce demand.
China-US e-commerce exports dropped more than 50 per cent for a third straight month in December, with full-year volumes down 28 per cent. China-Europe growth slowed to eight per cent in December, compared with 54 per cent in the first 11 months of 2025. Excluding Russia, volumes to Europe fell 23 per cent.
Xeneta said regulatory changes, including US de minimis bans and EU processing fees, are adding friction to e-commerce trade. It noted most spot rates declined year on year, with steep falls on Southeast Asia to North America and Europe corridors. Rates are expected to lift ahead of Lunar New Year in mid-February, though signs of a cargo rush remain limited.
